Top Six Congestion: The Absurdity of the Serie A Table
Something is happening in Serie A that occurred just once in Europe’s top-five leagues this century.
Something is happening in Serie A, something that hasn’t happened in Italian football since the 1980s and occurred just once in Europe’s top-five leagues this century.
The top six teams in the Serie A table are separated by just two points after 12 matchdays.
Napoli (26 points) are clinging to first while Atalanta, Fiorentina, Inter and Lazio are all on 25. Juventus (24 points) round out the madness in sixth as any of these sides could see themselves on top of the heap after the weekend’s action.
Of course it’s about a third of the way through the campaign, but the significance of how close the top six are cannot be understated. In an age when proper title races throughout European football are more of the exception than the norm, there’s a refreshing sense of unknown when trying to make sense of the current classifica.
And despite Serie A being the only top-five league with four different winners in the last five seasons, those campaigns averaged 10.2 points between first and sixth after matchday 12.
The 2020-21 Case
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the only other time in the 21st century that the top six were separated by two points after 12 matches in one of Europe’s “big five” was 2020-21.
It was in Ligue 1, of all places, during the still-current era of Paris-Saint Germain dominating French football that such a cluster appeared. PSG led the way with 25 points, Marseille sat in second on 24 and the quartet of Lille, Lyon, Monaco and Montpellier all had 23.
Many should recall that it was Lille who took advantage of the early-season jumble, outlasting the other hopefuls and nicking the title from PSG on the final day.
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The COVID-restricted 2020-21 campaign provided crunched standings in England, too, as it was the closest the Premier League has ever come to two points between the top six at this stage. Three points separated leaders Tottenham (25) from sixth-place Chelsea (22), while Manchester City also had 22 points in seventh.
That one didn’t end up mattering, though, as City won their third title in four years by a 12-point margin.
Two-Points-for-a-Win Era
And now for some real perspective: the 2024-25 Serie A and 2020-21 Ligue 1 are the only two competitions that have seen two points separate the top six after 12 games in the entire three-points-for-a-win era.
It requires a look back at the 1993-94 LaLiga standings after matchday 12 to find the wildest top-six agglomeration of them all. That year, back when two points were awarded for a win, the top six in LaLiga were all on 16 points after matchday 12.
Deportivo La Coruña, Valencia, Athletic Club, Real Madrid, Sevilla and Barcelona were all even at that stage, but Barca secured the title on goal difference after finishing level with Deportivo (who only needed a win on the final day and drew at home).
Ten years before that was the last time Serie A was as close as it is this year, thus far. It was the time of a 16-team, 30-game Serie A, so two points between first and sixth after 12 games made 1983-84 wide open.
Juventus (16), Roma (16), Sampdoria (15), Verona (15), Torino (15), Fiorentina (14) and Milan (14) each had legitimate title hopes nearly halfway through the term. Nonetheless, the Old Lady got her way as Juve held off Roma with a game to spare.
It must be noted that, inherently, two points being awarded for a win facilitated such close races, that it’s the equivalent of three points between the same positions in the modern era. This is true, and really shows how absurd what’s happening right now in Italy is.
Even still, it’s fascinating to peek at these snapshots in time from leagues around Europe during past decades and dig up title races many have forgotten or were never aware of.
Speaking of which, the last time England saw such top-six congestion was just one year prior to Italy: the 1982-83 First Division which, in fact, was three-points-per-win.
The phenomenon hasn’t occurred in the Premier League era, but 1982-83 featured a top six of Liverpool (22 points), West Ham (22), Manchester United (22), West Brom (21), Tottenham (20) and Manchester City (20) vying for breathing room. The slog of a 42-game campaign proved too much for all but Liverpool, however, as those Reds comfortably took the title by 11 points.
And then there’s Germany, where the Bundesliga’s lone entry into this odd bit of football history came in 1966-67. Braunschweig were top after 12 matches with 16 points, tailed closely by Eintracht Frankfurt (15), Kaiserslautern (15), Bayern Munich (14), RW Essen (14) and Hamburg (14).
Braunschweig endured and won the title by two points, six ahead of sixth as the league remained competitive throughout. The rest of that congested top six spread their wings across the final table, as Essen managed to get relegated, Hamburg slipped to 14th and Bayern finished sixth via goal difference. What a season.
The Gist
While 12 matchdays may seem like a random snapshot to use for zooming in on historical tables across Europe’s top-five leagues, it’s usually the first point of the season where a semi-realistic picture starts to take shape.
That makes the current situation in Serie A all the more exciting, as supporters of clubs like Atalanta and Fiorentina have plenty of reasons to dream.
Atalanta, whose meteoric rise under Gian Piero Gasperini was already cemented with the Europa League triumph in May, could realistically win a first-ever title.
Then there are Fiorentina and Lazio, both with the chance to break decades-long trophy droughts and completely flip modern dynamics in the league.
These hypotheticals are more possible in this moment than they’ve been in a long time. There’s belief from all six of the current contenders, thanks to the ultra-thin margin separating them.
And taking a step back to acknowledge how rare it is to have the top six teams separated by two points at this point of the season reminds everyone of football’s beautiful unpredictability.
*Historical table data via transfermarkt.com