Giro di Boa: Serie A Halfway Through
Drama at both ends and games in hand galore have Serie A poised for a wonderfully uncertain second half of 2024-25.
The “winter champion” has won Serie A in each of the past two seasons. Last term, Inter held a two-point lead atop the table after 19 games and Napoli were 12 points clear at the same stage in 2023.
At the giro di boa (turning point) of the Serie A season, halfway through when everyone’s played everyone else, the table typically finds some balance, neatly clustered and presenting more than a few certainties.
What to make of this year, then, as a glut of games in hand for various reasons leave all three title challengers with the ability to claim that they’re the leading side halfway through.
The current ruling trio of Napoli, Atalanta and Inter are followed by another three sides that appear set for European places without a lot between them.
This second tier of Lazio, Juventus and Fiorentina have some breathing room above Bologna and Milan, but the postponed match between those two could prove pivotal in the hunt for continental qualification.
That muddy top eight, of which two clubs are on 19 games played, three on 18 and three on 17, is propped up by, essentially, a two-team mid table.
Udinese and Roma both have some work to do to dislodge one of the European hopefuls, but aren’t nearly as implicated in the relegation scrap as literally everyone else below them.
Just four points separate 11th and 18th, making the Italian top flight once again poised for a stirring race for survival.
Meanwhile, three of Italy’s 2006 World Cup winners have been sacked as managers in the league, most recently Alessandro Nesta who left relegation-bound Monza as maybe the only certainty after half the season.
The Dons: Conte, Gasp and Inzaghi
On paper, Antonio Conte’s Napoli have won the winter, amassing 44 points from 19 matches and firmly boast the best defense in the division with just 12 goals conceded.
High expectations follow him everywhere and one-game-a-week Napoli were no different, but Conte’s return to Serie A has been excellent and resurrected the Partenopei from their post-scudetto plummet.
As rumors swirl around the future of star winger Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, the emergence of David Neres (who has matched the Georgian’s goal contributions in far fewer minutes) has added a spark to Conte’s attack, while he hopes stalwart center back Alessandro Buongiorno returns swiftly from injury.
Napoli’s advantage is slim and potentially temporary, though, as Atalanta sit just three points back (41) with a game in hand, head-to-head win and superior goal difference.
Gian Piero Gasperini has already worked wonders at previously provincial Atalanta, transforming the Bergamaschi from yo-yoers to Europa League champions last May. But, those who thought that was the culmination of his project might have been mistaken.
Atalanta’s front three have exploded, as attackers tend to do under Gasp, with capocannoniere hopeful Mateo Retegui, reigning African Player of the Year Ademola Lookman and the dynamic Belgian Charles De Ketelaere leading the charge.
Although the draw with Lazio last time out snapped a streak of 11 wins, Gasperini’s side have been the league’s form team of the last two months and haven’t lost in Serie A since September. A never-before-imagined scudetto is more in reach than ever for La Dea.
And yet, if everyone had played the same amount of games then the title holders, Simone Inzaghi’s Inter, would probably be top. The Nerazzurri are on 40 points from 17 matches, potentially two clear at the summit if they win both games in hand.
Even with Lautaro Martínez’s profligacy in front of goal, Inter have scored a league-high 45. Marcus Thuram is having his say in the scoring race while the quality of Nicolò Barella, Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco and Hakan Çalhanoğlu, among others, is ever-present.
Inzaghi’s tactical innovations and sporting director Beppe Morata’s shrewd management have made Inter the class of the country since 2023. Despite their capitulation in the Super Cup final, the Nerazzurri have won six straight in the league and lean on the most settled core in the division.
Only one will emerge and the lone guarantee is this is the most wide open Serie A has been in years.
Yearning for Europe
Fourth to sixth are occupied by Lazio (35 points from 19 games), Juventus (32 from 18) and Fiorentina (32 from 18). Form and squad strength suggest that those three will remain in the European places come May, but a coveted spot in the top four is very much up for grabs.
Lazio are flying in the Europa League and have been formidable in Serie A under first-year manager Marco Baroni, but a 6-0 drubbing at the hands of Inter in mid-December brought them down to Earth.
Nonetheless, Nuno Tavares and his league-best eight assists have been a revelation at left back and Nicolò Rovella is putting together a breakout season as one of the division’s best deep-lying playmakers.
The Biancocelesti lost by one to both Juve and Fiorentina so, with all three potentially on the same amount of points after 19 matches, those return fixtures may determine who gets to reap the riches of the Champions League next season.
And one can only imagine the backlash Thiago Motta will face if his Juventus fail to reach Europe’s premier club competition. In one of the strangest quirks of the 2024-25 Serie A, Motta’s Juve are still unbeaten in the league despite being, at minimum, nine points off the pace.
Loads of money was spent in the summer and the new signings, aside from the electric and over-burdened Francisco Conceição, haven’t quite found their feet. Motta has plenty of questions to answer, with the future of polarizing striker Dušan Vlahović high on the list.
One of the Bianconeri’s staggering 11 draws through 18 matches was against Fiorentina, a side who have matched them in the table and largely impressed under the up-and-coming Raffaele Palladino.
The 40-year-old manager has unleashed Moise Kean, he of zero goals last term and now banging them in at a rate of 11 in 18 Serie A matches.
Despite winning just one of their last five, the Viola seem finally poised to end their three-year run of Conference League football and return to the Europa League for the first time in eight seasons. If they do one better and snap up fourth, it would be their first time in the Champions League since 2010.
Bologna (28 points from 17 games) and Milan (27 from 17) aren’t too far behind, however, with the former led by Palladino’s predecessor in Florence, Vincenzo Italiano.
While Italiano hasn’t been able to steer the Rossoblù into the top-24 of the Champions League, his Bologna have been quietly consistent in Serie A and took all three points against Fiorentina when they met last month.
Retaining European status, no matter which competition, should be considered a success for Bologna and they’re well positioned to do so. Milan, on the other hand, are well off the stated objective of winning the scudetto which was professed by recently-dismissed manager Paulo Fonseca.
Another Portuguese tactician, Sérgio Conceição (Francisco’s dad), has come in and immediately delivered a trophy after consecutive comeback victories at the Super Cup to snatch the final from city rivals Inter. Quite the boost, but those wins don’t count in the table and there’s still plenty to do.
Positives have definitely been gleaned from that trip to Saudi Arabia, though, as a newly-energized Théo Hernandez scored his first goal since September and the mercurial Rafael Leão was at his high-octane best.
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Conceição has adjusted the objective to finishing in the top four and implemented wholesale changes to the first team structure. The squad looks to be bought in and he’ll have the opportunity to make another statement against Juventus in just over a week.
In the background of the race for Europe is the UEFA country coefficient and the fact that the two top-performing nations in this year’s European tournaments will receive an extra place next term.
Italy benefited from this expansion last year and are very much in the running for it again, but no manager in the top eight will be banking on this variable.
The Drain is Clogged
The curious pair of Udinese and Roma in ninth and 10th, respectively, have very different perceptions of their current status. The Bianconeri of the northeast are decidedly overachieving after escaping relegation on the final day last season.
First-year manager Kosta Runjaić has fully stabilized the club as they look to be the median of the league, a role that Torino held in each of the three previous campaigns.
Roma, who recently surfaced from the lower reaches of the table, are again being rescued by Claudio Ranieri and brought themselves back into the top half with a deserved derby win over Lazio last week.
Ranieri is the third coach of the season, after Daniele De Rossi was prematurely dismissed and Ivan Juric lasted less than two months. However high their ceiling, Roma may be the most grateful if Italy does secure an extra European place for 2025-26.
Dipping into the bottom half is when the situation becomes hectic. Torino (11th, 21 points) sit just four points ahead of Lecce (18th, 17 points), setting up a volatile second half of the season in the race for salvation.
Genoa and Empoli have been solid and should be confident of their chances, despite the former still being without a home win through 19 games. Parma have the attacking quality and gumption to maintain in 14th, but have faced some heavy defeats and are unpredictable.
Verona’s ghastly goal difference sticks out, letting in a league-high 42 goals in 19 matches while achieving their first draw of the season last Saturday. A 3-0 win at Napoli in the season opener and 3-0 defeat to Juve on week two sum up the Butei under Paolo Zanetti, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they replicate Sassuolo’s collapse last term from 15th to flushed.
Como have the richest owners in the league, a flashy name in the dugout in Cesc Fàbregas and celebrities at the Sinigaglia. They’ve already spent nearly €15 million on two new players in January and are shopping for more, play a pleasing brand of football and it would be a bit ironic if they went down.
Cagliari are hanging on, level on points with Lecce and grateful to have broken a four-match losing streak with a win at Monza last time out. Salvation specialist Davide Nicola has been at the helm since the start of the season and the Islanders’ full faith is in him to finish the job.
And then there are Lecce, whose new manager boost via Marco Giampaolo’s appointment has dissipated. They simply can’t score, netting just 11 times in 19 outings, and will be hard pressed to keep southern representation (outside of Napoli) in the top flight.
Venezia are a further three points back and, while they’re unbeaten in four of their last five, the Lagunari haven’t won away from home and are likely to be relegated at the first attempt for the second time in four seasons.
Monza’s six consecutive losses have them spiralling down the drain, with one win in 19 games, and the inexperienced Salvatore Bocchetti lost his first two matches in charge against fellow strugglers Parma and Cagliari.
From top to bottom, Serie A oozes intrigue and promises drama throughout the next five months. Derbies, big matches and relegation scraps are in abundance over the coming weeks.
There’s so much football to follow at this crunch point in the year, but the title race and relegation fight in Italy are certain to be some of the most entertaining on the continent.